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A Stochastic Programming Approach for Shelter Location and Evacuation Planning

Vedat Bayram (bayram***at***bilkent.edu.tr)
Hande Yaman (hyaman***at***bilkent.edu.tr)

Abstract: Shelter location and traffic allocation decisions are critical for an efficient evacuation plan. In this study, we propose a scenario-based two-stage stochastic evacuation planning model that optimally locates shelter sites and that assigns evacuees to nearest shelters and to shortest paths within a tolerance degree to minimize the expected total evacuation time. Our model considers the uncertainty in the evacuation demand and the disruption in the road network and shelter sites. We present a case study for a potential earthquake in Istanbul. We compare the performance of the stochastic programming solutions to solutions based on single scenarios and mean values.

Keywords: Disaster Management, Evacuation Traffic Management, Shelter Location, Constrained System Optimal, Two-Stage Stochastic Programming, Second Order Cone Programming

Category 1: Applications -- OR and Management Sciences (Transportation )

Category 2: Linear, Cone and Semidefinite Programming (Second-Order Cone Programming )

Category 3: Stochastic Programming

Citation: Optimization Online, Preprint ID 2015-09-5088, 2015

Download: [PDF]

Entry Submitted: 09/06/2015
Entry Accepted: 09/06/2015
Entry Last Modified: 12/18/2015

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