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Creating Standard Load Profiles in Residential and Commercial Sectors in Germany for 2016, 2025 and 2040

Mostafa Fallahnejad(Fallahnejad.Mostafa***at***swm.de)
Maik GŁnther(Guenther.Maik***at***swm.de)
Benedikt Eberl(BEberl***at***ffe.de)

Abstract: Standard load profiles (SLPs) are used to calculate the natural gas demand of non-daily metered customers based on temperature forecasts. The most recent version of natural gas SLPs in Germany was published by the Federal Association of Energy and Water in June 2015. With the concept SigLinDE, a linearization of the old SLPs was carried out mainly for adjusting the SLP values in low temperatures as well as high temperatures. Therefore, an additional water heating line and a space heating line were introduced. These SLPs are based on historic data and represent the actual situation. But they are not helpful for the calculation of daily gas demand of SLP customers in Germany in long-term. Better insulation of buildings or more efficient heating systems will change the SLPs in the future. Thus, the concept of the SigLinDE profiles is used in this paper to create SLPs till 2040. For this purpose, a LP model was developed in GAMS environment. The model is executed for one- and two-family dwellings, apartments and the commercial sector for the years 2016, 2025 and 2040. The obtained SLPs demonstrate that year by year, the heating phase will be started at colder temperatures most probably due to the technology improvements.

Keywords: standard load profile, SLP, residential sector, commercial sector, GAMS, LP

Category 1: Applications -- OR and Management Sciences

Category 2: Linear, Cone and Semidefinite Programming (Linear Programming )

Citation:

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Entry Submitted: 07/21/2016
Entry Accepted: 07/21/2016
Entry Last Modified: 07/21/2016

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