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Meta-Modeling to Assess the Possible Future of Paris Agreement

F Babonneau(fbabonneau***at***gmail.com)
A Bernard(alain.bernard***at***gmail.com)
A Haurie(ahaurie***at***gmail.com)
M Vielle(marc.vielle***at***epfl.ch)

Abstract: In the meta-modeling approach one builds a numerically tractable dynamic optimization or game model in which the parameters are identified through statistical emulation of a detailed large scale numerical simulation model. In this paper we show how this approach can be used to assess the economic impacts of possible climate policies compatible with the Paris agreement. One indicates why it is appropriate to as- sume that an international carbon market, with emission rights given to different groups of countries will exist. One discusses the approach to evaluate correctly abatement costs and welfare losses incurred by different groups of countries when implementing climate policies. Finally using a recently proposed meta-model of game with a coupled constraint on a cumulative CO2 emissions budget, we assess several new scenarios for possible fair burden sharing in climate policies compatible with the Paris agreement.

Keywords: COP21, Climate policy, Meta-Modeling, Game with cou- pled constraints, International emissions trading scheme, Computable Gen- eral Equilibrium Model, Rawlsian equity rule

Category 1: Other Topics (Game Theory )


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Entry Submitted: 11/14/2017
Entry Accepted: 11/14/2017
Entry Last Modified: 11/14/2017

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