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Optimal Design of Rapid Evacuation Strategies in Constrained Urban Transport Networks

JJ Escribano Macias (jose.escribano-macias11***at***imperial.ac.uk)
P Angeloudis (p.angeloudis***at***imperial.ac.uk)
K Han (k.han***at***imperial.ac.uk)

Abstract: Evacuations constitute essential life-saving processes during any disaster response activity. Their effectiveness depends on the existing coordination mechanisms, evacuee numbers, and the state of the underlying transportation network. Network capacity constraints and the inev-itable surge in demand during evacuations often lead to congestion, which is regarded as un-avoidable and severely delays the process. This paper presents a hybrid simulation-optimisation methodology to optimise evacuation response strategies through demand stag-ing. We introduce a pre-planning model that evaluates policies, using a low-level dynamic traffic assignment model that captures the effects of congestion, queuing and vehicle spillback. Optimal evacuation strategies are determined using derivative-free optimisation al-gorithms, applied to an evacuation problem based on a benchmark dataset. The effects of var-ying the number of activated paths and the frequency of departure are observed. Our analysis indicates that departure time scheduling is a promising method to improve evacuation effi-ciency when compared to a worst-case benchmark scenario.

Keywords: simulation-optimisation, disaster evacuation, genetic algorithms, dynamic traffic assignment

Category 1: Applications -- OR and Management Sciences (Transportation )

Citation: Imperial College London, 2018

Download: [PDF]

Entry Submitted: 08/02/2018
Entry Accepted: 08/02/2018
Entry Last Modified: 07/29/2019

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