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Robot Dance: a mathematical optimization platform for intervention against Covid-19 in a complex network

Luis Gustavo Nonato(gnonato***at***icmc.usp.br)
Pedro Peixoto(ppeixoto***at***usp.br)
Tiago Pereira(tiago***at***icmc.usp.br)
Claudia Sagastizabal(sagastiz***at***unicamp.br)
Paulo J. S. Silva(pjssilva***at***unicamp.br)

Abstract: Robot Dance is a computational platform developed in response to the coronavirus outbreak, to support the decision making on public policies at a regional level. The tool is suitable for understanding and suggesting levels of intervention needed to contain the spread of diseases when the mobility of inhabitants through a regional network is a concern. Such is the case of a highly contagious virus like Covid-19, for which the epidemiological compartmental models describing the infection dynamics must consider the circulation of people. Robot Dance anticipates the spread of the transmission in a complex regional network, identifying fragile links where applying differentiated measures of containment, testing, and vaccination is the most effective. By solving a stochastic optimization problem on a complex network, the model determines optimal strategies on the basis of commuting of individuals and the situation of hospitals in each district. Uncertainty in the capacity of intensive care beds is handled by a chance-constraint approach. Some functionalities of Robot Dance are illustrated on the state of São Paulo in Brazil, using real data for a region with more than forty million inhabitants.

Keywords: mathematics of Covid-19, stochastic optimization, mobility matrix, complex networks

Category 1: Applications -- Science and Engineering (Biomedical Applications )


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Entry Submitted: 10/06/2020
Entry Accepted: 10/06/2020
Entry Last Modified: 10/06/2020

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